After a difficult yr, Morgan Stanley sees much more drawback for Airbnb . Analyst Brian Nowak downgraded the momentary house condo inventory to underweight from equivalent weight. He additionally slashed his worth goal to $80 consistent with proportion from $110. The brand new goal implies drawback of 14% from Tuesday’s final degree of $93.12. Nowak pointed to doubtlessly slowing energetic listings enlargement over the following few years as a key possibility for the inventory. He famous: “Whilst energetic listings have grown at a 12% ’18-’22 [compound annual growth rate], we see this slowing to a 7% ’22-’25 CAGR going ahead because of scale and legislation of huge numbers.” “Our provide type blended with reported nights booked allow us to calculate that ABNB is these days working at 35% occupancy in ’22, in keeping with ’21 (35%) however up from 32% pre-COVID,” Nowak stated. “The secret’s we expect we have been prior to now too positive about ahead call for; we now scale back our ’23/’24 nights booked by means of 5%/12%.” Slowing listings additionally makes Morgan Stanley’s undergo case at the inventory much more likely, the analyst stated. He famous that the inventory may fall as little as $60 consistent with proportion, which might be 35.6% beneath Tuesday’s shut. “Our type for decelerating provide speaks to how it’s more and more essential for ABNB to force call for enlargement via upper occupancy and/or extra nights to be had consistent with checklist,” Nowak stated. “The corporate additionally has to try this whilst going through the danger that the following 1.5mn listings (on most sensible of the present 6.2mn) could also be of decrease high quality, or in much less fascinating shuttle places.” Airbnb stocks were underneath force in 2022, losing greater than 44%. Ultimate month, the corporate reported better-than-expected third-quarter effects, however the inventory fell at the again of lackluster income steering for the fourth quarter. Previous this yr, resources instructed CNBC that Airbnb was once final its home trade in China. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
Source link
